Pick and Stick: Why the oh-and-two Raiders believe it's payback time
The Raiders are zero-and-two after a fortnight on the road in Queensland but they're back home on a firm, fast, hot and dry surface now. And it's time to payback the coach against Sharks who they own.
And so to sweet home Camberamma for the round three fixture against Sharks from Cronulla and one assumes also Sutherland, and how the home team will fare against these people, these one-and-one Sharkies is anyone’s - and we do mean anyone’s - guess.
Because it is a guess. It’s effectively toss a coin. You can’t tip this fixture with any certainty. You could make all sorts of prognostications and affectations to ‘Shark Fin Soup’ (see where that gets you), come up with records, statistics, game plans, coaching styles, and pit each player head-to-head against his direct opponent, and still get it wrong because how are you going to account for players doing stupid shit?
Love Matt Timoko. Love him like kids love a Pine and Lime Splice on a hot day at Kambah Pool. But why he wouldn’t toe the ball dead as it bobbled about in the water-logged confines of Moreton Bay Stadium’s in-goal region is … well, it’s haunting me, haunting me like the long-dead sea captain in The Ghost and Mrs Muir.
Doubtless the big stick has been waved by Big Stick, and the foibles of the XVI players who’ve survived the axe (Ata Mariota has a broken hand, his bench spot taken by Trey Mooney ) will have been pointed out in typically honest Ricky Stuart fashion.
Not that the players wouldn’t know. But to hear it from Coachy in a video nasty session, that can stay with a man. It’s like reverse affirmation. A searing hot scar on the soul.
Maybe not that bad.
And yet! What also stays with a man is honesty. And if Stick sticks, as he has with the same people who’ve lost two on the trot, it means something. It’s a vote of confidence. And people want to repay that.
But it’s not so stupid anyway. Because Stuart knows and the players know, too, and especially now that it’s been positively affirmed: they haven’t sucked. They’ve had a big dig in two tough games. Some execution issues defusing kicks, sure, but you can fix them. And the defence has been outstanding, good as any in competition. They’ve been a tough line to bust through.
But we won’t dwell. As per our our most recent missive, let’s consign the 20-14 loss in the Sunshine Coast slop to the Dustbin Johnson. The Dolphins go okay, and appear to be thriving with liberal dollops of Uncle Benny’s special sauce, and we were in front for most of that game, and that’s two games in two weeks we’ve been right in it against pretty decent teams, at their homes in Queensland, and, bit of luck from the refs and the bunker-gods, and players not doing dumb shit, we could - don’t scoff, we could - be two-and-oh.
True fact. Bounce ball here, kick the fucking thing dead there, we’re having a whole different conversation. And as old mate Timmy Gore and the other one, Blake, on the Blake and The Pork podcast would tell you, there are reasons to be cheerful. Here’s a quick set of six.
Outside Mariota, Stuart’s named the same players. It’s affirmation that they’ve been pretty good without, you know, winning. Not perfect, of course. But it’s early days. And proud men will want to repay the trust. And stay in first grade.
It’s going to be hot and dry, fast and firm, and our gas-men are good as theirs and will run with fan-noise. Timoko will want to make amends. Albert Hopoate wants to stay in first grade. Seb Kris does not (yet) resemble a fullback but has very tidy ability to run in open field. Want to see Harley Smith-Shields get on an edge and burn his man and open up.
Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty will be feeling it. Halves ‘own’ results. And the Machine’s attack lacked penetration in the wet on the Sunny Coast. Yet it’s not like the pair will have forgotten how to play. Dry surface, these are highly effective kickers, distributors, ball runners. And Wighton will terrorise Matt Moylan.
As will Corey Harawira-Naira, Hudson Young and Joe Tapine who will run at Moylan like Brahman bulls at a sick baby goat.
The Sharks still don’t have Nicho Hynes.
We own the Sharks. They haven’t beaten us since July of 2018 when Brad Abbey was fullback, Paul Gallen was lock and Blake Austin played seven in jumper 14.
So there you go. You could throw in that we’re in a better position than Parramatta Eels (who have Panthers and Roosters in coming weeks both, like Manly, coming off a bye) and a vastly better position than Wests Tigers (who are bad).
But really, it comes down to this: most NRL games are toss a coin.
Consider:
The Dolphins beat the Knights who lost to the Warriors who lost to the Roosters who beat the Rabbitohs who lost to Penrith who lost to Brisbane who beat the Cowboys who beat the Raiders who lost to the Dolphins who beat the Roosters who beat the Warriors.
Parramatta Eels, meanwhile, lost to Storm who lost to the Bulldogs who lost to Manly who beat Parramatta who lost to the Broncos who beat Penrith who beat the Rabbitohs who beat the Sharks who beat Parramatta.
So yes - it’s a pretty open go. And our boys, any given day, remain good as any. Toss a coin. Buck 90 the field.
And at home, on a hot night in sweet home Camberamma, might we humbly suggest you declare with gusto….
Up The Milk!