Weird science and streak won't save Wahs from shellacking at Go Media
The Warriors have won five straight and sit outright second on the NRL ladder. But go through the numbers and the absence of two starting props, and you might do a hammie getting on Raiders at $2.17
The People! The game day. And the Wahs at AKL.
And it should be quite good.
Dry afternoon, nor-east winds, packed house of face-painted tongue-waggling crazy people, they are a good and unique crew, Wah Types, and one can only admire and salute them for their fandom.
And then bash the very mucous out of their team, bash them as if taking a cricket bat and smashing up a sack-full of crabs.
It’s what we did in round one. I was there at Allegiant in Las Vegas, drinking vodka cranberry surprise and eating zesty hot dogs, and after five minutes of footy I turned to a companion, stroked my metaphorical goat-beard and through a mouthful of super-sized pineapple donut said: We are on. We’ve got these people. We are bashing shit out of them.
It was total D. Cloying. High pressure. Enveloping. We won the ruck, the wrestle, the contest of ideas.
Following similar ruck-domination of Brisbane Broncos a fortnight later, the NRL high-ups apparently decided, We cannot have that. And there followed the Night of The Ridiculous at Four Pines Park, with eight six-agains and three penalties in 22 minutes, before Corey Horsburgh was binned and at half-time it was 30-nil Them.
Let us never speak of it again.
For another high-speed bash-fest looms at Mt Smart Stadium, known in the revolving way of so many Shark Parks, “Go Media Stadium”, because it’s sponsored by a mob sells electronic billboards, not a fan of the practice, nowt wrong with Brookie and Bruce and Kogarah-Jubilee.
Regardless. Our team beats their team today in Auckland for manifold reasons.
Yes, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is a dangerous man. For no reason I can recall, I was actually there for his debut, in 2013 at Allianz, and he bopped about like a scalded cat strapped to an electronic pogo stick, and didn’t score a try in his team’s shock loss, 36-16, to Gold Coast Titans.
But his best days are long gone, old Rog. Been a statesman. A champion. But his team-mates that day included Anthony Minichiello, Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pearce. The man’s 32 next week. He’s a beauty. But, y’know.
More dangerous is the other Wing Man, the Wahs’ spirit animal, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, a man who can do things. Unexpected, “big” things. And our X-Man, Xavier Savage best up and upon him.
They have some good eggs elsewhere, forwards and backs, spine and bench. Luke Metcalf, Chanel Harris-Tevita, our runaway bride Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. Wayde Egan’s in Origin Conversation form.
But our backs have a bit more about them. A bit more body. More speed. And a mandate to bash and frustrate, and run over them like bulls of Pamplona trampling piss-frightened Norwegian backpackers regretting drunken choices.
Heft in the forwards favours our people, too.
Joe Tapine, the oddly Origin-miffed Corey Horsburgh, Morgan “Tom” Smithies and the bowling ball with arms that is Josh Papali’i, these people are like four Mr T’s causing pain in defence and attack.
And we have more and better of their type than the other mob do, particularly given no Mitch Barnett, no James Fisher-Harris. How they’re still favourites, still not sure.
(“Tom” Smithies? So last week mixed up Morgan with a journo name of Tom Smithies, you write however many tens of thousands words a week and you can know mild dyslexia, it is a Thing, and there was not shame but there was chagrin.)
And yet … for all this, and the bevy of statistics we’re about to rain upon you like so much golden oil, it is very hard to understand, for mine, why the Canberra Raiders are rated the $2.17 chance in this fixture and the Warriors are odds-on, look-on at $1.69.
And, granted, the game is not won and lost on statistics. But consider these statistics and decide who’s got more points in them.
Canberra Raiders are second in the NRL for points scored with 318 behind Melbourne Storm (338). New Zealand Warriors sit 15th with 205 points.
Canberra Raiders sit second in the NRL for tries with 55 behind Melbourne Storm (58). The Wahs? Fourth-last with 37 tries. It means that ten rounds in, the Raiders score two more tries per game than the Warriors.
The Raiders are third for line breaks (61), the Warriors 16th (36).
The Raiders are second for offloads (142); the Warriors are 16th (73).
The Raiders lead the league for tackle breaks (425), the Warriors are 15th (301).
The Raiders lead the league for least number of ineffective tackles (137), the Warriors are eighth (162)
The Warriors’ relative lack of offloads would suggest why they are first for Set Completion stats with 83% (Raiders 80%), have made the least amount of errors (97 to Raiders’ 115) and conceded the least amount of penalties (47 to the Raiders 70, second worst).
Which goes some way to explaining why they’re outright second on the ladder and on the crest of a five-win streak.
It’s clear that Head Coach Andrew Webster has forged a gutsy, minimal-mistakes unit. They work and graft and win. The last five rounds they’ve won by four (Dolphins), one point (Dragons), four points (Cowboys), 14 points (Knights) and four points (Broncos).
Elsewhere they’ve been flogged by 28 (Storm) and 22 (Raiders), while knocking over Tigers (by two), Roosters (eight) and Sea Eagles (20).
But they’re up against an in-form, fit, speedy, highly confident Canberra Raiders XVII this afternoon, a squad that will, of course, miss Hudson Young and Matty Nicholson, but which has been imbued with the confidence to enjoy themselves and express their skills by a man who’s been doing it for 527 games in this man’s National Rugby League, and is an early tip for Coach of the Year, Ricky Stuart.
Raiders by 16.
Up the Milk.