You will lose: how penalties and restarts smoked Machine against Manly
A sin-bin, a disallowed try, a kick out on the full and a handful of dropped bombs did not help. But the tale of the tape Sunday afternoon shows that the Raiders had no chance against Manly at home.
Forget it.
For-fuckin-get it.
Nobody, not Penrith Panthers, not Melbourne Storm, not the ghost of the ‘65 Saints, would have beaten Manly Sea Eagles on Sunday night at Brookvale Oval after conceding 11 set restarts in the first 22 minutes.
Don’t care. You can’t do it. You can’t tackle for so many sets and then thrust your way up field, and put points on the other mob. You can’t physically do it.
You also don’t have the time.
Consider the time-line:
02:14 - Penalty - Ball Strip - Tom Starling
02:20 – Penalty - Other - Josh Papalii
02:49 - Ruck Infringement - Corey Horsburgh
03:27 - Ruck Infringement – Josh Papalii
06:03 - Penalty - Holding Down - Trey Mooney
09:41 - Penalty - Offside - Jamal Fogarty
16:45 - Ruck Infringement - Savelio Tamale
20:28 - Try Disallowed - Seb Kris
20:29 - Penalty – Obstruction - Corey Horsburgh
21:33 - Ruck Infringement - Hudson Young
21:46 - Penalty - Professional Foul - Corey Horsburgh
21:54 – Sin Bin - Professional Foul - Corey Horsburgh
Somehow, to this point, it’s still 0-0.
Then off goes the Big Red Horse. And 10 minutes later it’s 24-nil. And game over.
At half-time it was 30-0. Game even more over.
Because you can’t endure 11 set restarts in 22 minutes, and make three times as many tackles (210) to the opposition (70) in the first half and win. You can’t have 25% of the ball and win.
You can’t tackle for 20 minutes, then have a bloke go in the sin bin and not give up points.
You can’t do anything but suck it up and repel boarders.
And yet, even amongst all that tackling, Canberra did score. Seb Kris scored a fine rugby league try, but rugby league, silly rugby league, called the play illegal because the ball was touched down over the try-line. And perhaps it was an obstruction when Daly Cherry-Evans ran into Corey Horsburgh.
But here is a thing: the play would not have been called illegal if the ball was not touched down. In general play, it would have been play-on.
What smarter players than Seb Kris may one day work out - and admittedly it will take a rocket surgeon of Stephen Hawking-like proportions, the likes of which has never been seen before in rugby league - is that if you’re bopping down field and there’s the barest inkling of an obstruction somewhere in the play, you should not score the try. Rather you should take the tackle. Fall over. Start again. Score from dummy-half, or in the next set, or whatevs.
Instead, Horsburgh was penalised because Cherry-Evans ran into him.
Then Horsburgh was sin binned.
And 11 minutes later it was 24-nil.
Now, for sure, granted, Kaeo Weekes dropping bombs at fullback did not help. A kick defusal statistic of 33% is not best practice.
For sure, yes - dud defence at dummy-half did not help.
And for sure, granted, yes, yes, yes - missing the mighty Haumole Olakautau on the edge did not help pin the Sea Eagles in their half.
But your defence is going to degrade when all you’ve done is defend. Again - no team could repel that much attack in this man’s National Rugby League.
So, sports fans, what, apart from Grant Atkins, happened?
It looked like the Raiders were playing the same way they had in wins over New Zealand Warriors and Brisbane Broncos: high intensity, physicality, the eternal dance to dominate, to “win” the ruck by slowing down play-the-ball.
And then they do the same thing at Brookie, and with play-the-ball speed numbers the same for both sides, the visiting team is penalised 10-4 on top of 6-1 ruck infringements.
The home fans at Manly games are a legitimate help to the home team, as they should be. But even they were thinking, my but the Raiders are having the rough end of the pineapple here. Admittedly they also thought, as Raiders fans would have thought had roles been reversed, tough shit, visiting weirdos.
But there it is.
In the post-match press conference, Ricky Stuart offered that “something’s changed this week - and I’ve got a great idea of how.”
He did not elaborate further when prodded.
For mine, there was either an edict from on high, or the refs decided, or Atkins decided on his Pat Malone, that there should be a crackdown on slowing play-the-ball, and that the Raiders should be the ones to cop it.
But who knows. Because both sides were playing the same footy, doing the same rough-house stuff in the ruck. But it’s one way traffic, all that first half?
What’s doing, 2IC cheese Andrew Abdo?
Stuart added that it was “really difficult coaching when you don’t know the rules. I’ve got no idea … the six-agains … I see those tackles done every week by other teams and nothing’s done. You tell me. I’m not allowed to.”
Then he led with the chin, as is his way.
“I’ll sound like an idiot but … they’ve scored two tries from dummy-half through poor organisation around the ruck, a man in the sin bin and fatigue. And two tries off kicks.
“So, defensively, we did a sound job. They should’ve been 50 or 60 points up at half-time.
“Well done, they won, we didn’t.
“But I just don’t get the first half,” Stuart said.
What Manly got was 16 restarts which they turned into attacks upon the Raiders in the Raiders’ 22. And if that happens, friend, as Ivan Drago (Dolph Lundgren) said to Rocky Balbao (Sylvester Stallone) in Rocky IV: You will lose.
Simple. You lose. And Reuben Garrick will score four tries and Ethan Bullemore - who runs like a hairy bowling ball with arms - will score two, and at half-time you’re left sucking on Four Pines at the southern end of Four Pines Park, and, well, you are sad, for there is no more game and it’s the one time of the year they play this fixture where you live. And you’re as sad as you were happy this time last year in the rain.
But enough! For know this, sports fan: play the same game on a different ground with a different referee, and the 40-12 result could easily be completely, 100 percent reversed.
So for-fuckin-get it.
Up the Milk.